There is more support for gay marriage than our politicians make out, writes Ryan Heath from The Gay Marriage Blog. Here’s what we need to do to get equality – and it means we all need to get our butts into gear…

Family First candidates argue that gay marriage creates child abuse. Tony Abbott is threatened by gays let alone their possible marriages. One Nation simply wants us in rehab. The lone lesbian in the Cabinet – Penny Wong – hasn’t mustered the courage to speak out in support of marriage equality. It hasn’t been a good election for nation’s million or so gays and lesbians.

This is strange but unsurprising. It is strange because the public has largely moved on from scare campaigns about radical gay agendas. Indeed, there is now a soft majority in support of even the pinnacle of gay rights – marriage. The unsurprising part is that leaders like Julia Gillard are afraid of finding out just how soft or hard that level of support is. Risk-taking is much frowned up in mainstream politics today, and that is bad news for those who want to press new issues or correct previously hidden injustices. It seems easier to make Penny Wong a patsy for the party line than risk the consequences of a free debate on the issue.

I have a great deal of sympathy for Wong’s position – she has been rounded on while her heterosexual colleagues get off scot-free for pressing exactly the same view. Namely, elections are about transactions with marginal seat voters rather than principles. Gays had their transaction in 2008 with 58 positive legal changes that removed nearly all discrimination against them at a Federal level. In the Labor Party play book they must now go to back of queue with gratitude while the concerns of ‘hard-working’ and ‘ordinary’ people resume their rightful place. Never mind that we continue to be denied access to the social and cultural support that comes with being part of society’s core institution.

Voters have reason to be skeptical of Labor’s posturing on this issue. The truth is the majority of a re-elected Labor Cabinet would vote for marriage equality if given the choice. In fact up to 14 would vote in favour based on past statements and track records. That could be a reason to support or punish the party, depending on your perspective.

There are six definite yes votes ranging from vocal supporters such as Anthony Albanese to the more discreet Peter Garrett. They are backed by several likely yes votes across the factions. Regardless of what Julia Gillard says, every element of her background and belief systems suggest she would be open to argument outside an election context. Should any of Tanya Plibersek, Greg Combet or Kate Ellis get a promotion, the numbers tilt even further towards equality.

On the Coalition benches support is scarcer – but up to five senior Coalition figures could support equality depending on ministerial composition. Joe Hockey, Malcolm Turnbull, Christopher Pyne, Sharman Stone and Marise Payne top the list. The Nationals are nowhere to be seen.

Yet the chances of a Labor or Coalition Cabinet taking a vote on gay marriage anytime soon are slim. The only realistic way forward is for a private members bill to be tabled by a Labor MP. In crude politicking terms it would help if the MP were heterosexual and not from an inner city electorate. If the ALP National Executive were to pass a motion supporting a debate and conscience vote, that would also clear the way for loyal MPs to listen to their electorates rather than the 2009 party conference vote against marriage equality.

But one of the major stumbling blocks on the path to equality has little to do with leaders or Christian lobby groups. Rather it is the disorganisation of gay and lesbian communities. Instead of calling Penny Wong a ‘traitor’ or asking her to ‘get on the next boat home’ as some have recently, the blogosphere and gay magazines and individual gays might benefit from some self-relection first. Funding better research and better lobbying would give Wong a lot more to work with in her blokey poll-driven party.

Gay communities need to put their money where their mouth is when it comes to equality. Eighty per cent of gays and lesbians want access to marriage yet only a tiny minority does anything about it. Their straight supporters are also silent and stingy when it comes to the heavy lifting.

In the short term that leaves The Greens as the key players in reform debates. Gay marriage will be a point of contention should the Greens’ current polling numbers translate into Senate or Lower House seats on August 21. As the only significant party to support equality, it is essential that Greens MPs hold the line for at least a free vote on the issue. Using their bargaining power to squeeze Labor into supporting a second-class civil union system would be a mistake. Civil Unions are a wonderful idea if they are an alternative for marriage. But they are a terrible idea if offered as a replacement for marriage.

Occasional extreme rhetoric aside, candidates have been pleased to skirt gay rights questions in this campaign. Those most affected by this have largely let them do so. This is not a sustainable. Successive governments have made gays leave their marriages at the border with the dirty shoes and fruit. Successive governments won’t issue the certificates gays need to get married overseas.

Successive governments seem happy to continue a relationship caste system. But the Australian public and the rest of the world is moving on. Sooner or later this will force values-blind risk-free politicians to catch up.

Ryan Heath’s excellent blog about the gay marriage debate is here.